Phenology models predict timing of events in an organism's development. For many organisms which cannot internally regulate their own temperature, development is dependent on temperatures to which they are exposed in the environment.
Information in this database comes from published articles. It may be used in conjunction with field monitoring and a degree-day calculator.
Note: Before using a model that was not field tested in your location, you should test the model for one or more seasons under your conditions to verify that it will work for you.
Model 1
Mitchell, R. G., and L. L. Sower. 1988. Phenology and heat accumulation as field guides for the seasonal history of the western pine shoot borer (Lepidoptera: Olethreutidae).
- Location of study: Central Oregon (field studies)
- Lower developmental threshold: 42.0°F (5.5°C)
- Method of calculation: Max-min (UC IPM recommends Single Sine)
Degree-day accumulations required for each stage of development
Start date: March 1
Host: Ponderosa Pine
- Moth flight begins: 90.0 (°F) 50.0 (°C)
- Moth flight 25% complete: 225.0 (°F) 125.0 (°C)
- Egg laying begins: 225.0 (°F) 125.0 (°C)
- Moth flight 50% complete: 306.0 (°F) 170.0 (°C)
- First larvae mine terminals: 306.0 (°F) 170.0 (°C)
- Moth flight 75% complete: 396.0 (°F) 220.0 (°C)
- First instars in terminals: 396.0 (°F) 220.0 (°C)
- Moth flight ends: 630.0 (°F) 350.0 (°C)
- First-third instars in terminals: 630.0 (°F) 350.0 (°C)
- Second-fifth instars in terminals 900.0 (°F) 500.0 (°C)
- Third-fifth instar in terminals: 1170.0 (°F) 650.0 (°C)
- First larvae emerged from terminals: 1170.0 (°F) 650.0 (°C)
- 90% of larvae emerged from terminals: 1440.0 (°F) 800.0 (°C)
- All larvae emerged from terminals: 1710.0 (°F) 950.0 (°C)
