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Research and IPM

Interactive Tools and Models: Citrus Thrips Scarring Prediction Model—Testing Phase*
San Joaquin Valley, California

This model, validated so far only in Tulare County, California, is a first step in developing a reliable prediction of citrus thrips damage with advance warning. It estimates the degree of first scarring of Navel oranges by citrus thrips, Scirtothrips citri, from weather data that accumulates prior to petal fall.

*Validation of this model has been limited, and you are encouraged to test the model to see if it is helpful to you under your field conditions. You can also help us to test and improve the model. Disclaimer: The University of California and the authors of this model do not assume any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any loss that may result from using predictions from this model.

Estimates for active stations in counties:
| Fresno | Kern |  Madera | Tulare |
Choose year
Or use your own weather data  

Predictions are based on actual weather data. When a prediction is available for a station (usually between March 17 and the end of April), it is posted here.

County Active Weather Stations 2020
Estimated damage
Days with estimated temperatures
Fresno Coalinga, CIMIS #205 6.7% 17 of 89 days
Del_Rey/Fowler-01.P, DELF 10.0% 0 of 91 days
Firebaugh/Telles, CIMIS #7 7.1% 9 of 92 days
Five Points/WSFS USDA, CIMIS #2 12.2% 8 of 92 days
Fresno State, CIMIS #80 6.0% 2 of 90 days
KINGSBURG-01.P, KNG 8.5% 0 of 90 days
Kearney_Ag_Ctr-01.P, KAC 9.7% 0 of 91 days
Orange Cove, CIMIS #142 16.9% 1 of 93 days
Panoche, CIMIS #124 11.9% 45 of 91 days
Parlier, CIMIS #39 6.6% 4 of 90 days
SAND_RANCH-01.P, SR1 19.9% 33 of 93 days
Westlands, CIMIS #105 14.8% 22 of 91 days
Kern Arvin-Edison, CIMIS #125 6.2% 2 of 89 days
Blackwells Corner, CIMIS #54 5.7% 30 of 92 days
Belridge, CIMIS #146 6.5% 1 of 89 days
Shafter/USDA, CIMIS #5 2.9% 1 of 85 days
Madera FIREBAUGH/ALISO-01.P, FRBA 20.9% 0 of 92 days
Tulare Delano, CIMIS #182 5.0% 5 of 90 days
Lindcove, CIMIS #86 5.8% 2 of 90 days
Lindcove, LNC 6.5% 0 of 84 days
Porterville, CIMIS #169 21.0% 3 of 94 days

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