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Research and IPM

Phenology Model Database


Flowering Shoots

Phenology models predict timing of events in an organism's development. For many organisms which cannot internally regulate their own temperature, development is dependent on temperatures to which they are exposed in the environment.

Information in this database comes from published articles. It may be used in conjunction with field monitoring and a degree-day calculator.

Note: Before using a model that was not field tested in your location, you should test the model for one or more seasons under your conditions to verify that it will work for you.

Model 1 of 1

Pasian, C.C., and J.H. Lieth. 1994. Prediction of flowering rose shoot development based on air temperature and thermal units. Scientia Horticulturae 59:131-145.

Pasian, C.C., and J.H. Lieth. 1996. Prediction of rose shoot development: model validation for the cultivar 'Cara Mia' and extension to the cultivars 'Royalty' and 'Sonia'. Scientia Horticulturae 66:117-124.

Location of study: Davis, California (greenhouse studies)

Developmental thresholds
Lower:41.4°F(5.2 °C)

Method of calculation: Max-Min Method: Degree-days = [(Tmax - Tmin)/2] - To, where Tmax is the daily max temperature, Tmin is the daily min temperature, To is the lower threshold. Set Degree-days to 0 when To > (Tmax - Tmin)/2.

Degree-day accumulations required for each stage of development
 DD (°F)DD (°C)
'Cara Mia'
Cutting to bud break376209
Bud break to leaf 117195
Leaf 1 to visible bud297165
Visible bud to last leaf14983
Last leaf to harvest364202
Cutting to bud break362201
Bud break to leaf 113977
Leaf 1 to visible bud313174
Visible bud to last leaf11966
Last leaf to harvest473263
Cutting to bud break 349194
Bud break to leaf 116793
Leaf 1 to visible bud 288160
Visible bud to last leaf 15385
Last leaf to harvest310172
Bud break: day on which a growing bud reaches length of at least 10mm.
Leaf 1: unfolding of leaf 1

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